October 6, New York

[the September Jobs Report : The Department of Labor/Washington, DC]  154.35 million Americans are employed compared to 153.44 million the previous month, an increase of 906,000.  The number of paychecks earned for the week of September 10th through 16th declined by 33000, largely reflecting Iruma’s devastating landfall on September 10th.  The difference in these two numbers is that more Americans are employed, yet many missed a paycheck in September.  These Americans are counted as employed for purposes of the employment survey but not for purposes of the jobs (payroll) survey.  Thus, while more individuals are employed – which is why the unemployment rate decreased – 33000 fewer individuals received a paycheck for the survey period.  The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent, the lowest since February 2001.  This is the first month that the unemployment rate for women, presently at 3.9 percent, has been below 4 percent since June 2007.  The labor force participation rate increased 0.2 percentage point to 63.1 percent.  In short, more Americans are working both as a percent of our population and as an overall number.  The DJIA fell by 1.72 points to 22773.67 while the S&P 500 declined by 2.74 points to 2549.33.  The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 4.82 points to 6590.18.  10 year Treasury yield settled at 2.37 percent and WTI futurs fell by $2.96 to settle at $49.25.  Judging from the negative effects of hurricanes on the U.S. economy, it is expanding gradually and steadily.  The Federal REserve will raise its short-term interest rates again by the end of this year.